Company Overview
Neste Corporation is a Finnish multinational oil and gas company that has been at the forefront of sustainable energy solutions for over 100 years. With its rich history and commitment to innovation, Neste has established itself as a leader in the renewable energy sector, providing a range of products and services that cater to the growing demand for cleaner energy sources.
As a responsible corporate citizen, Neste's primary mission is to accelerate the transition to a circular economy by developing and commercializing sustainable energy solutions. The company's core values are built around its commitment to innovation, customer satisfaction, and environmental responsibility. By prioritizing sustainability and reducing carbon emissions, Neste aims to create a better future for generations to come.
Neste's product portfolio is diverse and extensive, with a focus on renewable energy products such as sustainable aviation fuel (SAF), diesel, and heat. The company's SAF solutions are designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by up to 80% compared to traditional fossil fuels, making them an attractive option for airlines, airports, and other industries that rely heavily on aviation fuel.
In addition to its renewable energy products, Neste also offers a range of services, including logistics, marketing, and sales support. The company's expertise in the oil and gas industry enables it to provide customers with tailored solutions that meet their specific needs and help them achieve their sustainability goals.
With operations in over 30 countries and a strong presence in Europe, Asia, and North America, Neste is well-positioned to capitalize on the growing demand for sustainable energy solutions. The company's commitment to innovation, customer satisfaction, and environmental responsibility has earned it a reputation as a trusted partner in the renewable energy sector.
Key Products/Services:
Neste's product portfolio includes:
- Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF): A renewable energy solution designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by up to 80% compared to traditional fossil fuels.
- Renewable Diesel: A cleaner-burning diesel fuel that reduces greenhouse gas emissions and helps customers meet their sustainability goals.
- Heat: A range of heat solutions, including bio-based heat and district heating, that enable customers to reduce their energy consumption and carbon footprint.
Neste's services include:
- Logistics: The company provides logistics support for its renewable energy products, ensuring timely and efficient delivery to customers.
- Marketing: Neste offers marketing and sales support to help customers promote their sustainable energy solutions and achieve their sustainability goals.
- Sales Support: The company provides sales support to help customers navigate the complex world of renewable energy and find the right solution for their needs.
Benefits
Neste's products and services offer a range of benefits, including:
- Reduced greenhouse gas emissions: Neste's renewable energy solutions can reduce carbon emissions by up to 80% compared to traditional fossil fuels.
- Improved air quality: By reducing the amount of pollutants released into the atmosphere, Neste's products and services can help improve air quality and public health.
- Increased energy efficiency: Neste's heat solutions can help customers reduce their energy consumption and carbon footprint, leading to cost savings and increased competitiveness.
- Enhanced sustainability: By providing a range of sustainable energy solutions, Neste helps customers achieve their sustainability goals and contribute to a cleaner, more environmentally friendly future.
Valuation
| 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 (e) | 2027 (e) | 2028 (e) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Number of Shares (million) | 769.2 | 769.2 | 769.2 | 769.2 | 769.2 | 769.2 | 769.2 |
| Target Valuation (MEur) | 14830.7 | 14822.7 | 11265.0 | 8691.5 | 9063.9 | 6498.0 | 6498.0 |
| Targer Price | 19.28 | 19.27 | 14.64 | 11.3 | 11.78 | 8.45 | 8.45 |
| Potential, % | -55.2 | -40.2 | 20.8 | -41.8 | -64.6 | -74.6 | -74.6 |
| Recommendation | Sell | Sell | Hold | Sell | Sell | Sell | Sell |
| MCAP (MEur) | 33091.5 | 24776.3 | 9326.7 | 14930.4 | 25591.7 | 25591.7 | 25591.7 |
| Price | 43.02 | 32.21 | 12.13 | 19.41 | 33.27 | 33.27 | 33.27 |
| EV | 34435.0 | 27264.0 | 13519.0 | 18747.0 | 28322.0 | 26700.0 | 25488.0 |
| P/S | 1.29 | 1.08 | 0.45 | 0.79 | 1.16 | 1.08 | 1.07 |
| EV/S | 1.34 | 1.19 | 0.66 | 0.99 | 1.28 | 1.13 | 1.07 |
| EV/EBIT | 14.29 | 16.22 | 540.75 | 37.27 | 21.9 | 14.17 | 25.09 |
| P/E | 17.49 | 17.25 | -99.22 | 103.68 | 28.07 | 17.66 | 32.63 |
| P/B | 3.97 | 2.93 | 1.26 | 2.04 | 3.17 | 2.69 | 2.48 |
| P/OCF | 27.65 | 10.86 | 7.88 | 8.55 | 10.46 | 9.23 | 10.84 |
| EV/OCF | 28.77 | 11.95 | 11.43 | 10.73 | 11.58 | 9.63 | 10.79 |
| P/FCF | -84.63 | 32.95 | -29.89 | 19.7 | 22.84 | 15.77 | 21.11 |
| EV/FCF | -88.07 | 36.26 | -43.33 | 24.73 | 25.28 | 16.46 | 21.02 |
Income Statement
| 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 (e) | 2027 (e) | 2028 (e) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | 25707.0 | 22925.0 | 20635.0 | 19015.0 | 22128.4 | 23618.1 | 23820.4 |
| Rev. Growth, % | 69.7 | -10.8 | -10.0 | -7.9 | 16.4 | 6.7 | 0.9 |
| Ebit | 2409.0 | 1681.0 | 25.0 | 503.0 | 1293.2 | 1884.5 | 1016.0 |
| Ebit Growth, % | 19.0 | -30.2 | -98.5 | 1912.0 | 157.1 | 45.7 | -46.1 |
| Ebit, % | 9.4 | 7.3 | 0.1 | 2.6 | 5.8 | 8.0 | 4.3 |
| Profit | 1892.0 | 1436.0 | -94.0 | 144.0 | 911.6 | 1449.3 | 784.2 |
| EPS | 2.46 | 1.87 | -0.12 | 0.19 | 1.19 | 1.88 | 1.02 |
| Profit Growth, % | 6.7 | -24.1 | -106.5 | 253.2 | 533.1 | 59.0 | -45.9 |
| Profit, % | 7.4 | 6.3 | -0.5 | 0.8 | 4.1 | 6.1 | 3.3 |
Balance Sheet
| 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 (e) | 2027 (e) | 2028 (e) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inventory | 3648.0 | 3366.0 | 2898.0 | 2895.0 | 3137.6 | 3060.8 | 3178.1 |
| Acc. Receivable | 2178.0 | 1913.0 | 1539.0 | 1416.0 | 1929.9 | 2038.6 | 2058.8 |
| Cash | 1271.0 | 1575.0 | 955.0 | 1367.0 | 2476.2 | 4098.7 | 5311.0 |
| Equity | 8327.0 | 8463.0 | 7417.0 | 7314.0 | 8075.6 | 9524.9 | 10309.1 |
| ROE, % | 22.7 | 17.0 | -1.3 | 2.0 | 11.3 | 15.2 | 7.6 |
| ROCE, % | 22.0 | 13.4 | 0.2 | 4.0 | 9.7 | 12.8 | 6.5 |
| Net Debt | 1344.0 | 2488.0 | 4192.0 | 3817.0 | 2730.8 | 1108.3 | -104.0 |
| Gearing, % | 16.1 | 29.4 | 56.5 | 52.2 | 33.8 | 11.6 | -1.0 |
| Equity ratio, % | 55.8 | 53.0 | 47.6 | 46.4 | 47.7 | 53.3 | 56.1 |
| Acc. Payable | 3022.0 | 2580.0 | 2185.0 | 2440.0 | 2191.2 | 1865.0 | 1599.5 |
| Total Assets | 14917.0 | 15983.0 | 15581.0 | 15749.0 | 16934.5 | 17881.2 | 18387.6 |
| ROA, % | 12.7 | 9.0 | -0.6 | 0.9 | 5.4 | 8.1 | 4.3 |
Cash Flow
| 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 (e) | 2027 (e) | 2028 (e) | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Operating Cash Flow | 1197.0 | 2281.0 | 1183.0 | 1747.0 | 2446.0 | 2772.0 | 2361.2 |
| Investment Cash Flow | -1588.0 | -1529.0 | -1495.0 | -989.0 | -1325.8 | -1149.6 | -1148.9 |
| Free Cash Flow | -391.0 | 752.0 | -312.0 | 758.0 | 1120.2 | 1622.4 | 1212.3 |
| OCF/CAPEX | 0.75 | 1.49 | 0.79 | 1.77 | 1.84 | 2.41 | 2.06 |
| Financial Cash Flow | -37.0 | -440.0 | -314.0 | -313.0 | -22.0 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Disclaimer
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